the mozo blog

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has released the text of another speech, this time to business leaders in Toowoomba. And so it’s time for analysts, pundits, commentators and generally interested persons to pick over his themes, his words and the general vibe of the thing, to try and second-guess what the Reserve Bank of Australia will do to interest rates next month.

As always, there’s something for everyone. References to good economic news and references to risks and uncertainties. If you want to predict that rates will go up in May, you can quote him on the speed of the rate cuts in 2008/9 and suggest that he’s paving the way for faster rather than slower increases. If you want to predict that the RBA will pause in May and leave rates steady, you can quote him on the need to leave flexibility in how we respond to the way the recovery unfolds. And there’s plenty each way in his analysis of the global economic recovery.

But look closer. We’ve found an ingenious code hidden in the speeches of the RBA Governor. And an astonishing truth… unveiled at last!

He tells us that, when responding to the GFC, the RBA cut rates by 375 basis points over 5 months. And that so far, they’ve responded to the recovery by increasing them by 125 basis points over 7 months, “…which is still only about a third the pace of the earlier declines.” Now 375 over 5 equals 75, but notice that 125 over 7 is well short of a third of this – it is not even a quarter! Rather than a numerical error, this is actually a clue. To get to exactly one-third, you need 200 over 8… and a 75 basis point increase in May would do exactly that! Unbelievable!

A 75 basis point increase next month is a shocking conclusion, well outside what most observers predict, but one clearly supported by the clever trail of clues he has left. But, rest assured that this would be the final increase: his speech contains 3133 words, and 3+1+3+3 = 10, and 1+0=1, ie he’s telling us that there is just one last rate rise.

Silly? Yes, but it is no less scientific than some other predictions people make from picking apart his speeches for clues. The RBA has told us clearly that there is likely to be a little bit more to go, but that the timing is up in the air. That’s all the clues they are going to give us. Maybe May, maybe June, maybe both, maybe neither.

So instead of predicting what the RBA might do, here at Mozo we’ll keep our eyes on what financial providers do in response. Every month, Mozo’s Rate Chasers update Reserve Bank interest rates with information about home loan rate rises as it comes in. And of course, you can find everything you need in our extensive database of rates, fees and features, for home loans, credit cards, savings accounts, term deposits, personal loans and bank accounts.

mozo.com.au. we chase. you save.

It’s time to pull out your calculator and do some simple sums on those mortgages. And the sum to do is to take your current interest rate, add 2%, and see if you can cope with the adjusted repayment amount. Because that’s where we are headed.

There is now no doubt that the RBA is done with its rate lowering cycle. We’ve all been hypothesising on this for a while, and the RBA itself has now essentially confirmed it.

In fact, Glenn Stevens has gone further, and indicated that rates need to go back to “normal” levels, which he defined as “a good deal north of where the cash rate is now”.

Reading between the lines, I think the RBA is indicating that 5% is more normal to it. That’s a 2% rise from here. And given that we’ve all got used to “unusually low” rates (as Glenn Stevens refers to the current state of play), that will feel like a large rise.

This prediction may be unsettling for first home-buyers or those looking to refinance – for a typical loan of $250,000, this 2% hike will mean an extra $300 in monthly repayments. Use the Mozo Home Loan Health Check to see if your loan is costing you more than it should.

So the only question now is WHEN rates will start to move up…
My prediction is that it isn’t when the RBA next moves on rates that we need to worry about, it’s when the banks do, because I think they’ll be first. Regardless of when the RBA decides it’s time, I’ll place a $20 bet that the banks move before it does anyway.

And it may be sooner than we think. No bank will want to be first, but one of them will go at some stage, and as soon as that happens, the one thing you can be completely sure of is that the rest will follow quickly. They act in unison – always have, always will.

So just when we least expect it, at a time when the news flow will allow it to get through without too much push back, one bank will move rates up, and the rest will follow.

Given all that, and a world where rates are about to start moving in a one way journey north, it’s a good time to do some quick sums and make sure you can cope with an extra 2% on your mortgage.

Compare home loans with Mozo.com.au

The question I get asked more than any other right now is – should I fix my home loan?

My answer, as from an hour ago, is clearly yes…

The reason is that the Commonwealth Bank has just put its standard variable home loan rate UP! The NAB has said that rates are under review, and the other big banks are no doubt doing the same. This means that regardless of whether the RBA keeps cutting rates or not, the banks are clearly signalling that they are done with cutting theirs.

I also think that we are at, or very near, the bottom of the Reserve Bank rate cutting cycle anyway. There is light at the end of the economic doom and gloom tunnel, our resources driven economy continues to show signs of strength, our government continues to announce spending plans, and there is renewed optimism. All this points to a recovery of business activity and growth. In fact we are seeing it as well, with things like advertising rates going up in the last month with our own advertising. All this growth reemerging means the RBA can stop the rate cutting, probably now but perhaps a small additional cut or two at most.

Even before CBA’s move today, the banks have stopped passing on rate cuts. The last RBA cut was a Claytons rate cut, because the banks didn’t pass it on anyway (well only 40% of it to be precise). It was a clear message, they’re done going down. CBA’s move today is simply a continuation of that message.

It is also worth considering that picking the exact bottom isn’t necessary anyway if you take a long term view. Even if there is a little further to go (and if there is we can only be talking small drops, we’re already at the lowest rate level ever), over a long term view we’re so close to the bottom that long term decision making should be rewarded.

So all that says to me that it is a good time to lock in a fixed home loan rate while we’re at or near the bottom of the rate cycle. If you lock in a fixed rate for say 5 years, it’s hard to see how that won’t be a lower rate in 2014 than the variable rate will be by then. In all likelihood we’ll be back in booming economic times and the rate cycle will be up already or on the way. A decision you make today could lead to a pleasant experience reading your home loan statement in 5 years!

In fact I happened to see an email newsletter from March 2008, just over a year ago, and it advertised the My Rate Home Loan at 8.44%. My Rate Home Loans are now at 4.99%. If rates can come down that fast in a year, then think how much they could move up over the next 5 years.

And locking in a fixed rate today can get you rates well below this March 2008 level. For example with RAMS Home Loans you could get a 3 year fixed rate at 5.89% and a 5 year fixed rate at 6.49%. To lock in that sort of rate for that sort of time seems nothing but sensible to me.

Fix now before the banks move their fixed rates up. This is inevitable now in my mind, as they try to quickly adjust. Be savvy and move before they do.

So fix away and sleep well. Over the long term it will be a winning decision.

Compare fixed rate home loans with Mozo.com.au